一项假设永远不会立即提升到理论的地位，因为这将违反奠定实证基础现代科学的弗朗西斯 ·培根（ 1561-1626 年）确定的原则。 依 According to Bacon, preliminary inductions from hard evidence are but the first step on a staircase going from specifics to increasing stages of generality.据培根，初步诱导过硬的证据只不过是从具体问题通往通用性更高阶段阶梯的第一步。 Each step on the staircase of inductive ascent must be subjected to review and testing. 每一步上楼梯的归纳性上升，必须受到审查和测试。 基于仔细观察的 A hypothesis based on careful observation is the first step of induction. 一项假设归纳的第一步。 A scientific theory is at the top of the staircase. 科学的理论位于阶梯的顶部。

弗朗西斯 ·培根（ 1561-1626 年）

Insiders of the science establishment can be rigorously Baconian concerning a new hypothesis that is outside of their comfort zone. However, when hypotheses are promulgated within established theory, the insiders often forget Bacon and accept sweeping generalities from scanty evidence. The most crazy example I can think of is the paleontologist who found a single fossil toe of a primate, and speculated that he had found the missing link. His zany speculations were published in the scientific journals and the popular science magazines that took his speculations seriously. The sanction of authority and official theory can make otherwise smart, skeptical people astoundingly credible and gullible. Their reasoning skills are numbed by the fallacy of argumentum ad vericumdium (appeal to authority).

对于他们（在理论上— 译注）感到舒适的领域以外的假说， “科学共同体 ”圈内之人可以严厉地实施培根哲学。 However, when hypotheses are promulgated within established theory, the insiders often forget Bacon and accept sweeping generalities from scanty evidence. 然而，当一项假说的颁布处于既定理论领域之内，“ 科学共同体 ”圈内之人往往忘记培根的规则而宽松地接受笼统泛泛并不充足的证据。这方面一个 The most crazy example I can think of is the paleontologist who found a single fossil toe of a primate, and speculated that he had found the missing link. 最疯狂的例子，我能想到的是一位古生物学家发现灵长目动物的一个名脚趾化石，并推测说他已经找到了进化过程中一直缺少的一个环节。 His zany speculations were published in the scientific journals and the popular science magazines that took his speculations seriously.他愚蠢的揣测，刊登在非常认真对待他的揣测的一些科学杂志和科普类杂志。支持权威性与官方 The sanction of authority and official theory can make otherwise smart, skeptical people astoundingly credible and gullibl的理论，可以使另外情况下聪明的，持怀疑态度的人惊人可信和轻信。 Their reasoning skills are numbed by the fallacy of argumentum ad vericumdium (appeal to authority). 他们的推理能力取决于向权威提出的呼吁的谬误程度。

According to the Baconian process, a hypothesis must be verified with evidence and must survive a deliberate attempt to falsify it. Subsequently, it can be developed as a model, not a theory. Model-building is a slow, laborious process. A model is a working system and a logical framework that has an internally consistent structure and, hopefully, the support of evidence, logic, and mathematics.

根据培根哲学的过程，一项假设必须得到核实证据，而且必须经得起故意篡改它的企图而生存下来。 Subsequently, it can be developed as a model, not a theory.后来，它可以发展成为一个模型，而不是理论。 Model-building is a slow, laborious process.模型的建立是一个漫长的，艰苦的过程。 A model is a working system and a logical framework that has an internally consistent structure and, hopefully, the support of evidence, logic, and mathematics. 模型是一个工作体系和逻辑框架，有一个内部一致的结构，并希望获得支持性的证据，逻辑和数学。

Contrary to a misconception that is very common among scientists, one does not "falsify" a model. One falsies a hypothesis and discredits a model. Hypotheses are simple working assumptions based upon the observation of data. A hypothesis can be falsified by presenting a fact that contradicts it. A model is constructed according to a design and may include various hypotheses. A model might be discredited because (a) the predictions it makes about nature do not come true, (b) logical contradictions are apparently in the design of the model, or (c) the facts contradict a hypothesis built into the model. However, such setbacks are not necessarily fatal to a model. A model can be modified to correct its problems, resulting in a better model.

与科学家们之间非常通常的一种误觉相反，人们并不 “假造 ”一个模型。人们假造一个假说 One falsies a hypothesis and discredits a model.和诋毁一个模型。 Hypotheses are simple working assumptions based upon the observation of data. 假说是基于可观察的数据的简单的工作假设。通过提交实际上与其相矛盾的事实来 “假造 ”一个假说。 A model is constructed according to a design and may include various hypotheses. 模型是按设计，并可能包括各种假说。 A model might be discredited because (a) the predictions it makes about nature do not come true, (b) logical contradictions are apparently in the design of the model, or (c) the facts contradict a hypothesis built into the model.模型可能由于以下原因而被诋毁，因为（ a）依据其对于自然界的预测并不出现；（ b）模型的设计中显然存在逻辑上的矛盾；或（ c）有关事实与构建到模型中的假说相矛盾。 However, such setbacks are not necessarily fatal to a model. 然而，这样的挫折不一定对模型造成致命性后果。 A model can be modified to correct its problems, resulting in a better model. 模型可以被修改，以纠正它存在的问题，从而产生一个更好的模型。