Self-Introduction

I am a British - Chinese business consultant, born in Oxford, England, but been living, studying and working in China since 1950. Due to a chance a chance acquaintance in 1990, I gradually developed strong interest in investigating and following-up on all kinds of effective techniques developed in China for earthquake (EQ) prediction and medium/long-term weather forecasting.

During the past three years, I have been working extensively and helping a number of Chinese EQ prediction practicers and medium/long-term weather forecast practicers in the above field in China. I assisted a few successful EQ prediction practicers from China to attend and make presentations to the Natural Hazard sessions of the European Geophysics Society 2002 Annual Assembly, Nice in April, 2002. Due to my active role in the above field, I had the honor in May 2002 as being appointed by the China Geophysics Society as an Advisor to the Committee of Natural Hazards Prediction of the China Geophysics Society.

Related to the above role, I have also joined and became a member to both the European Geophysics Society and the American Geophysics Union.

Shan and his Sun Shadow Deviation Observation Based EQ Predictions

In July 2003, by E.D.G., an American EQ prediction practicer/researcher team (their very interesting Website:http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/130.html), I was introduced to another interesting website in India:

http://EQ.itgo.com/today.htm

Through the above website, I got to know Mr. R. Shanmugasundaram (Shan) and his EQ predictions based on Sun Shadow deviation observation.

Shan, aged 46, living in Coimbatore, Tamilnadu, South India. A Physics graduate and a Radio Ham, but working in a Private Sector Bank for the last 25 years. "I am always interested in distance observation like Space Science, Wireless communication and Geology."

Upon studying the webpages on his above website, and through communication with Shan (his email address: vu2rss@gmail.com), I learnt that he has conducted consistent observation of Sun Shadow deviations for eight years since 1996.

His observatory basically is a large Sundial established by him causing the path of the Sun Shadow moving over one of the walls of his own house -- one of the most ancients and simplest astronomy observation techniques of mankind.

The "normal path" of the Sun Shadow established by the points at the same time each day form a straight line. During his observation, Shan discovered that the actual Sun Shadow path at most times wigs and wags along the direction of the "normal path", sometimes on it's right side, some times on it's left side, at different angles and lengths of deviation from it's "normal point" corresponding to the different times of the day.

Upon long-term Sun Shadow Deviation observation, and upon careful comparison of the above deviation against later actual EQs occurring in different locations over half of his side of the globe, Shan gradually found obvious relativities and began to announce almost daily EQ predictions >/=Ms4.0 on his above website.

Dual Purpose Evaluation: Practical Value of Shan’s EQ Prediction and Scientific Significance of the Sun Shadow Deviation

Based on my knowledge and initial study of Shan’s Sun Shadow Deviation (SSD) observation work introduced on Shan's website, I considered that the SSD observed by him could result from two main possibilities:

-- Temporary tilt of the local area/crust

-- Temporary zig zag tilting of the Earth's rotation axis

I concluded: If Shan’s SSD based EQ predictions could reach a reasonable high success rate on EQs occurring in different locations over half of the Indian’s side of the globe, this would indicate that a large number of EQs, if not all, more strongly indicates the latter, i.e. the Earth's rotation axis temporary zig zag tilts during the Earth’s self-rotation and the Earth’s revolution around the Sun.

I also concluded: If clear relativities between SSD -- Temporary zig zag tilting of the Earth's rotation axis and EQs occurring different parts of the globe can be proved, then Shan’s long-term observation of SSD could be proved to have made great contribution to further understandings of Earth science, Geophysics, Seismology and to EQ prediction science.

With all of this in mind, in order to make further judgment on both the practical value of Shan’s almost day to day EQ predictions announced on his website http://EQ.itgo.com/today.htm, as well as on the scientific significance of Shan’s SSD observation, I have since July 24, 2003 until this date conducted a continuous evaluation of all of his EQ predictions against all EQs >/=Ms4.0 occurring on half of the globe from his location in India.

Evaluation Criteria for Failure, Good, Practical Value & Scientific Value

The criteria I have used for the evaluation is established as follows:

Practical Value: The prediction could act as an alert to seismic hazard monitoring departments in/or close to the concerned regions to enhance their own local seismic monitoring efforts during/around the predicted date windows.

Scientific Value: The errors of the parameters of certain predictions are too great to act as the above mentioned type of alert to seismic hazard monitoring departments. However, the time window, location and magnitude of such predictions on a global scale are still comparatively close to the actual EQs, could still indicate that zig and zag temporary tilting movements of the overall Earth's self-rotation axis forms part of the cause of the triggering of EQs, and indicates close relativities to the parameters of the actual EQs, including when they occurrence, their magnitudes and where they occur.

I must stress: To the best of my knowledge, the relativity between SSD -- Temporary zig zag tilting of the Earth's rotation axis, and the parameters of the actual EQs, including when they occurrence, their magnitudes and where they occur, to date has not been recognized by today’s Earth science, geophysics and seismology, and by any other researcher than Shan.

Statistical Results of the Evaluation

the resulted percentages concluded by my evaluation are listed as follows:

Notes:

(1) Predictions with Value = Good + Practical Value + Scientific Value

(2) As certain predictions rated as Failure are still considered as predictions with Scientific Value, accordingly Failure + Total Value > Total.

The Excel file containing all the data to date for the above evaluation is attached for your own review and study to make your own conclusion. You can also obtain ongoing EQ prediction data from Shan’s website and continue your own evaluation for a longer period of time.

Restrictions & Limitations of Shan’s SSD based EQ Predictions

From what I have learnt: 1)

Shan's SSD observation is conducted by Shan during his spare time, with no assistants helping him, and at any time conducted at only one observatory established in one location. 2)

Based on Shan's experience, "Minimum 3 days Bright Sunshine is absolutely necessary to predict EQs. In some particular cases minimum 5 days sunshine is required. " Accordingly his observation efforts are seriously affected and restricted by the number of days and hours of necessary sunshine available in his location and available to him during his spare time. 3)

His SSD observatory is established and supported by his personal visual observation efforts, without any governmental support, and without any modern automatic equipment.

An interesting example:

On Sep. 24 2003, Shan posted a prediction to:

http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/messages/19454.html

Quote

7.5M Quake over Rat Island....

Posted by R.Shanmugasundaram on September 24, 2003 at 19:05:37:

Magnitude: 7 to 7.5M

From: 24th Sept. 03 - To: 30th Sept. 03

Location: Rat Islands Lat: 51.49N – Long: 177.07E - Range: 250 KMs

Unquote

Then, on Sep. 25, 2003, Shan’s prediction on his website included:

Quote

around 4 to 5M quakes over

HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION (43.1N 143.3E)

may occur within 48 to 180 hours from 10 AM IST on 25th Sept. 2003.

Unquote

Two strong EQs occurred within the above time window:

27 Sep2003 11:33:25.0 50.1N 87.7E 18 M =7.5 M*NEI SOUTHWESTERN SIBERIA (Redpuma)

25 Sep2003 19:50:07.0 41.9N 143.8E 33 M =8.3 M*NEI HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION (Redpuma)

Although Shan’s prediction was wrong on the location, after the two above EQs occurred, he was surprised to discover and confirmed to me:

“What is interesting is the precursor was very different kind and based on that I have specifically mentioned that 2nd strong quake also possible to nearby area. That was also occurred in S/W Siberia.”

“Another interesting point to note that Hokkaido and Rat Islands are situated more or less in a straight line if you draw it from Coimbatore, South India. Suppose if an observatory working in Kamchatka Peninsula, perhaps it may be easily predicted the quake over Hokkaido rather Rat Island, of course if sunshine favors.”

In my opinion, effective observation of movements of the overall Earth's self-rotation requires:

Continuous ongoing global-wide SSD observation. This requires similar observatories to be established and working in different locations of India and in different locations of the globe, in both the Northern Hemisphere as well as the Southern Hemisphere, and wherever possible, with equipped with modern observation/recordable equipment.

It would also require simultaneous observation/recordings by tilt meter, to take into consideration any possible tilting of the local crust surface.

It would also require the association and cooperation by astronomy observatories observation efforts at night, which would then result in round the clock observation of the zig and zag movements of Earth's self-rotation axis.

All the above observation data can be exchanged online in real-time through the Internet.

Conclusions

Based on the above evaluation, my personal conclusion is as follows:

1. Giving consideration to the above facts, I consider that the EQ prediction results by Shan, based on only one observation means of SSD, on EQs occurring over almost half of the globe, is already very successful. His success provides further scientific evidence proving that “Earthquakes can not be predicted” not only is a serious scientific mistake, but also an excuse very misleading on the media, public and governmental officials. Accordingly Shan’s successful work has made great contribution to EQ prediction science.

2. Furthermore, I am confidence that the mainstream science community will sooner or later recognize that Shan’s successful observation of SSD – temporary zig and zag movements of the overall Earth's self-rotation axis, and its obvious relativity with EQs, their magnitude, when they occur and where they occur over half of the globe from the observatory site, has also provided further scientific evidence contributing to the correction of a series of fundamental mistakes contained in the basic theories of the present Earth science, geophysics and seismology.

3. It is also necessary to state that the above mentioned obvious successful EQ prediction results also rules out the possibility that the SSD observed by Shan since 1996 is caused by possible tilting of the local crust surface, and/or any other reason than the temporary zig and zag movements of the overall Earth's self-rotation axis. Besides the temporary zig and zag movements of the overall Earth's self-rotation axis, no other reason could form the basis of such good relativities with EQs, their magnitude, when they occur and where they occur over half of the globe from the observatory site.

4. Due to the simplicity of his SSD observation, such observatories are suitable to be duplicated and established in remote and poor areas of the developing countries. However, for the same reason, they are also ideal to be duplicated and established at schools in all countries, including economy advance countries, for children and young students to acquire some interesting basic correct understanding about our Earth and Earth science. However, it needs to be stressed, without at least several years of consistent SSD deviation observation, it would be impossible to achieve what Shan has already achieved in EQ prediction through eight years of hard work. Accordingly, Shan's technical guidance in duplicating and establishing similar observatories is essential for achieving greater success within shorter periods of time.

5. Based on my investigation and study of a series of effective EQ prediction techniques developed in China since the first successful method was developed in 1970, my studies of certain other methods developed abroad, and my evaluation of Shan’s SSD observation EQ prediction method, it is obvious that EQs can be predicted. Most, if not all, of the key technical issues to assure good accuracy and reliability of EQ prediction, have already been solved through different techniques developed by various EQ prediction practicers.

What is really lacking at present?

1) Top concern to the interests and lifes of normal people, especially those living in poor houses in seismic hazard risk areas, and accordingly the social sense of responsibility, strong will and determination that we must predict EQs and avoid/reduce losses of their life and property;

2) Respect the truth and facts that many EQs in a number of EQ frequent occurrence countries have been successfully predicted in the past by many EQ prediction practicers adopting different techniques. Accordingly, official seismologists should change their attitude from giving top priority in always searching excuse to reject such truth and facts into top priority in searching and investigate for successful EQ prediction practicers in their own countries and abroad, and modestly learn with full respect and discuss how to cooperate and adopt the most successful techniques with them;

3) On such basis, rebuild the confidence that “EQs can be accurately and reliably predicted” during our present time, and not in another 10 years.

4) Necessary coordinated teamwork efforts organizing an effective network of observation stations equipped with the most successful and collaborating techniques – and not by any single means of observation/method.

5) Most essential, is governmental support.

6. In addition to successful experience obtained by a series of other effective EQ prediction techniques developed in both China and abroad, Shan’s SSD observation EQ prediction technique has once more proved to us:

• Accurate and reliable EQ prediction not only requires regional-international cooperation, but also global wide cooperation. This is not only possible, but also essential.

• As an example, I have many times pointed out: Due to the restricted shape and size of various EQ frequent occurring countries/regions, there is no way for them to achieve accurate and reliable EQ prediction with observations only within their own country/region! We all require also the cooperation of observations from remote located observatories with different techniques.

Discussions

What causes the SSD observed by Shan? What causes the temporary zig and zag tilt movements of the overall Earth’s self-rotation axis? What role does this have on the Earth’s core and on the triggering of EQs? All these issues will be discussed in further papers and could not be discussed even in summary in this initial evaluation study.

Acknowledgement

For the above most successful results obtained by Shan through almost eight years of consistence SSD observation, I would like to express great respect to the Indian people. They should be proud of having many great sons like Mr. R. Shanmugasundaramin. Through his work he has proven his strong social responsibility and sincere consideration to the lives of people of India and around the world.

I also need to express my appreciation to the The Catholic Syrian Bank Ltd. of India and Shan's colleagues giving understanding to Shan's SSD observation work during the past eight years. Such understanding is essential for all spare time researchers to achieve breakthrough success in any scientific field.

(End)

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