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关键词：科技创新社会学 能源与环境 大气氧气枯竭 天灾预测 教育改革 强子力学
作者简介：祖籍广东 1942年出生于英国牛津。工程师，无党派人士，信仰马列主义，80年初担任全国青联两届特邀委员。毕业于北京机械学院机械系，毕业后1968-1978年在辽宁抚顺挖掘机制造厂工作过十年，从事生产劳动、技术革新与技术情报研究工作。1978年底调到原一机部中国机械设备进出口总公司从事外贸工作。经部领导批准，1981年初担任〔美国〕嘉利华公司驻北京联络处驻华首席代表。2000年开始任北京市凯利华信息咨询有限责任公司总经理。2002年任中国地球物理学会天灾预测专业委员会顾问、2004年任中国灾害防御协会灾害史研究专业委员会顾问。
The Earth’s Revolution, Moon Phase, Syzygy Astronomy Events, Their Effect in Disturbances of the Earth’s Geomagnetic Field, and the “Magnetic Storm Double Time Method” for Predicting the Occurrence Time, Magnitude and Epicenter Location of Earthquakes
6. Long-term/Medium-term predictions: How to predict possible locations of strong EQs?
(British) Chen I-wan (cheniwan@263.net)
Advisor, Committee of Natural Hazard Prediction for China Geophysics Society
Advisor, Committee of Disaster Historical Studies for china disaster Prevention Association
The “MS Moon-Phase Double Time Method” is used for long-term/medium-term predictions to predict the high risk dates of possible strong EQs ≥Ms7.5 (and certain EQs Ms7.0 – 7.4) occurring global wide.
By this method itself, the most likely locations of such EQs can not be predicted.
However, Shen has been using the “Long-term EQ Cycles” to predict one or more most likely locations of the possible EQs ≥Ms7.5 (and certain EQs Ms7.0 – 7.4) occurring global wide.
6.1. The duration “Long-term EQ Cycles”: A few dozen years.
The “MS Moon-Phase Double Time Method” can only predict the possible occurrence dates of worldwide strong EQs ≥Ms7.5. What could we do to estimate the possible locations?
In late 1960s, a research group named “223” was established in China specially to study relativities between EQs and astronomy cycles. In 1969 they internally published a paper “Preliminary analysis of the relativities bewteen the Xingtai EQ and universal events”.
Enlighten by their work, during 1977 – 1987 Shen began to carefully study the “Long-term EQ Cycles” of major EQs in different areas in China, and abroad.
On the basis of such studies, beginning in the early 1990s, Shen used his “Long-term EQ Cycles” analysis to predict the possible locations of major EQs he predicted by the “MS Moon-Phase Double Time Method”.
Table 13 The “Long-term EQ Cycles”: West of China and nearby area
A 21 – 22 year cycle is apparent in the West of China and nearby area.
21-22 years, however, correspond to about twice the duration of the solar activity cycle, i.e. 2 x 11 yrs = 22 yrs.
Table 14 The “Long-term EQ Cycles”: Taiwan and nearby area
A 49 - 52 year cycle is apparent in the Taiwan area.
Table 15 The “Long-term EQ Cycles”: USA West coast and nearby area
A 21 - 22 year cycle is apparent in the USA West Coast area.
21-22 years, again, correspond to about twice the duration of the solar activity cycle, i.e. 2 x 11 yrs = 22 yrs.
Table 16 The “Long-term EQ Cycles”: Japan and nearby areas
Japan and nearby areas
A 50 - 51 year cycle is apparent in Japan and nearby area.
Table 17: The “Long-term EQ Cycles”: Chile and nearby area
A 21 - 22 year cycle is apparent in Chile and nearby area.
Table 18 The “Long-term EQ Cycles”: Turkey and nearby areas
A 59 - 60 year cycle is apparent in the Turkey and nearby area.
Note: 2002-2004 is a high risk duration.
Suggestion:
A number of Chinese EQ prediction practicer experts of the “Natural Disaster Prediction Committee” of the Geophysics Society of China, including EQ prediction practice experts in long-term, medium-term, short-term and EQ Imminent phase predictions, are willing to cooperate with Europe colleagues under a Sino-European cooperation project, to “catch” such a possible major EQ.
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