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The Earth’s Revolution, Moon Phase, Syzygy Astronomy Events, Their Effect in Disturbances of the Earth’s Geomagnetic Field, and the “Magnetic Storm Double Time Method” for Predicting the Occurrence Time, Magnitude and Epicenter Location of Earthquakes
2. Reasons why should pay special attention on the work and approaches of Chinese EQ prediction practicing researchers?
(British) Chen I-wan (cheniwan@263.net)
Advisor, Committee of Natural Hazard Prediction for China Geophysics Society
Advisor, Committee of Disaster Historical Studies for china disaster Prevention Association
Results of work 1967 – 2003 from a number of Chinese EQ prediction practicers and researchers indicate a sereis of new approaches and relativities in directions different to the prevailing seismology theories.
1) After the Xingtai EQ Ms7.3 in March 1966, until 1976 when the devastating Tangshan EQ Ms7.8 occurred, several 10s of thousands of researchers in various science and technical fields were activated and got deeply involved in study of EQs and EQ prediction. The development of this trend reached its peak in July 1976, before the Tangshan Ms7.8 EQ.
2) Different approaches, different means of precursors were observed by various self-developed sensors/instruments: Geo-stress; Geo-magnetic; Geo-electromagnetic; Geo-gravity, Geo-inclination, Geo-electric, Geo-electrical-resistivity; Geo-thermal/ drought; EQ imminent warning signs, etc.
3) As observation results disclosed phenomena in contradict with traditional seismology theories, this led them to study and develop new approaches.
4) The first EQ prediction method for predicting the occurrence date, location and magnitude of EQs, the “Magnetic Storm Double Time Method” (“MS Double Time Method”), was developed by Zhang Tie-zheng in 1969/1970.
5) The first successful EQ predictions reported to the Central Earthquake Work Administration Group in China was achieved by Zhang in Dec. 1979 and Feb. 1970.
6) Following the pioneer success by Zhang, Shen Zhong-pei and a number of other Chinese EQ prediction practicers successfully predicted a large number of EQs during 1970 – 1976, including successful predictions on the Haicheng EQ Ms7.3 Feb. 4, 1975 and a number of successful predicts on the dexterous Tangshan EQ Ms7.8 July 28, 1976.
7) After 1976, especially during 1991 – 2003, various Chinese EQ prediction practicers have successfully predicted many more EQs in China and/or abroad.
8) After the Xingtai EQ Ms7.3 in March 1966, a number of EQ observation stations where established in the Huabei area and other areas. The number of these EQ observation stations increased over the years, and reached over 100 by 1976.
9) Daily data, or even massive hourly data, of various kinds of geophysical parameter information was recorded by most of these observation stations, especially during 1973 – 1984 and onwards.
10) Most of the above mention EQ predictions, and the relativity between these EQs and much of this geophysical parameter information available EQ prediction has still not been carefully studied with modern computerized data analysis techniques.
11) China is one of the few countries with written historical records of most major EQs and related nature phonenmons, occurring in the vast territory of China since the Taishan EQ in 1831BC, 3834 years ago.
12) During 1970s – 2003, a number of EQ practicers & researchers in China have conducted extensive study of the long-term historical cycles of major EQs occurring in China and abroad.
13) Knowledge about obvious relativities between EQs and various astronomy events is a culture heritage from ancient China.
14) Since the 1970s – present, various EQ prediction practicers and researchers in China have conducted extensive studies of relativities between astronomy events and sudden dramatic changes of weather, development of EQs, etc.
15) Based on results of long-term observation and successful practice in EQ predictions, Chinese EQ practicers and other researchers have also achieved a series of revolutionary theoretical breakthrough in knowledge and understanding of the relativities between the effect of different positions of Earth’s revolution around of the Sun, Moon phases, other astronomy events and EQs.
☞ Next Section-->3. Relativities between Geomagnetic Disturbance/Magnetic Storm – EQs and the “Magnetic Storm Double Time Method” for predicting the occurrence date, epicenter area and magnitudes of EQs -- Studied by Zhang Tie-zheng since 1967
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