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关键词：科技创新社会学 能源与环境 大气氧气枯竭 天灾预测 教育改革 强子力学
作者简介：祖籍广东 1942年出生于英国牛津。工程师，无党派人士，信仰马列主义，80年初担任全国青联两届特邀委员。毕业于北京机械学院机械系，毕业后1968-1978年在辽宁抚顺挖掘机制造厂工作过十年，从事生产劳动、技术革新与技术情报研究工作。1978年底调到原一机部中国机械设备进出口总公司从事外贸工作。经部领导批准，1981年初担任〔美国〕嘉利华公司驻北京联络处驻华首席代表。2000年开始任北京市凯利华信息咨询有限责任公司总经理。2002年任中国地球物理学会天灾预测专业委员会顾问、2004年任中国灾害防御协会灾害史研究专业委员会顾问。
The Earth’s Revolution, Moon Phase, Syzygy Astronomy Events, Their Effect in Disturbances of the Earth’s Geomagnetic Field, and the “Magnetic Storm Double Time Method” for Predicting the Occurrence Time, Magnitude and Epicenter Location of Earthquakes
Abstract
(British) Chen I-wan (cheniwan@263.net)
Advisor, Committee of Natural Hazard Prediction for China Geophysics Society
Advisor, Committee of Disaster Historical Studies for china disaster Prevention Association
An increasing number of geomagnetic observation stations were established and operated in China since 1966 to the 1980s (and until present), effectively covering a large area of the nation. Close relativity between magnetic storms and Earthquakes, as well as close relativity between the regional differences of magnetic disturbance recorded by these stations and the epicenter location of Earthquakes, was discovered and observed by Tie-zheng Zhang during1966 - 1969. On such basis during 1969/1970, Zhang developed the “Magnetic Storm Double Time Method” for predicting the occurrence time, magnitude and epicenter location of EQs.
By this method,. Zhang successfully predicted the Yunnan Tonghai Ms7.7 EQ Jan. 5, 1970 (occurrence date only), the Bohai ML5.2 EQ, Feb. 12, 1970 and other EQs, including the Haicheng Ms7.3 EQ Feb. 4, 1975, and the Tangshan Ms7.8 EQ July 28, 1976.
On the basis of this method, Z.P. Shen developed the “Geomagnetic Deflection Angle Double Time Method” in 1970, and later developed the “Magnetic Storm – Moon Phase Double Time Method” in 1990s. With this method, Shen is able to predict the occurrence dates of most of the strongest EQs Ms7.5 on the Earth since 1991.
Zhang also discovered that strong EQs often correspond with a number of sets of magnetic storms. Z.Q. Ren discovered close relativity exists between Syzygy astronomy events and such sets of magnetic storm as well as the occurrence dates of strong EQs. Computerized calculation of historical magnetic storm and EQ data proves the effectiveness of this method. Over 3,000 days of geomagnetic isoline images are computer processed from over 400,000 geomagnetic field data obtained by Zhang from over 100 geomagnetic observation stations during 1966 – 1984. Clear relativity is shown between the Earth’s revolution, Moon phases, Syzygy astronomy events related to the Earth, and their disturbance effect on the Earth’s geomagnetic field and the occurrence of EQs.
Important Note (2005): It was later in 2003, after the above paper was written, that the author learnt about the excellent work of Larry Berg from his website: http://www.justgoodtiming.com/. His Astro Indicator/Berg Timer analysis discloses an additional background condition of all the movements’ of/on the Earth. Then in 2004, Liu Cheng-chang has also proposed further analysis of additional macro background conditions of the Solar System’s revolution in the Galaxy. Such new information requires the author to make further revisions to the above paper in the future.
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