陈一文 （cheniwan@263.net）　2007.01

Pascal Bernard stated58:

Pascal Bernard 声称58∶ 

“Hence, to the question, "Is the reliable prediction of individual earthquakes a realistic scientific goal?", my answer would be in the negative, as this should not yet be a scientific target. However, to the more relevant question, "Is the understanding of crustal transients an important and realistic scientific goal?", I would answer in the affirmative, and add that significant progress in this field is required before questions about earthquake predictability can be answered realistically.” 

“因此，对于这个问题，‘对个别的地震做可靠的预测是否是一个现实的科学目标？’，我的回答是负面，因为到目前为止这还不是一个科学目标。然而，对于更有关的问题，‘对地壳短暂变化理解是否是一个现实的科学目标？’我的答复是肯定的，并补充说，在可以对地震预测的问题做出实际的答复前必须首先在该领域中取得重大的发展。”

In his Concluding Remarks of the debate, Ian Main concluded :

在这场辩论的‘总结性评论’中，Ian Main总结97∶ 

“This debate has highlighted both a degree of consensus and a degree of continuing controversy within the thorny subject of the predictability of earthquakes. In terms of the four levels of prediction of seismicity I introduced at the start of this debate, a consensus has emerged that at least some form of time-dependent seismic hazard can be justified on both physical and observational grounds. The phenomenon of earthquake triggering leads to a transient, local increase in probability of future earthquakes, for example as aftershocks, but also sometimes in the form of subsequently larger events. In fact warnings based on such clustering are already in use in California (Michael, week 2).” 

“在地震的可否预测性这个多棘手的问题上，这场辩论既突出了多数人意见的地位，也突出了继续论战的地位。在我在这场辩论开始时所介绍的地震活动性四种不同水平预测的问题上，形成了一种多数人同意的意见，在物理学和进行观察的基础上可以证明存在着某种形式依赖于时间而变化的地震活动危险。地震触发现象导致短暂的局部增加未来地震概率的结果，例如余震；但是，有时这也造成而后更大地震事件的结果。事实上，在加利福尼亚已经采取基础这种‘丛集性’〔clustering〕的报警〔Michael，第2周〕。” 

“On the other hand, all of the contributors to this debate who expressed an opinion agree that the deterministic prediction of an individual earthquake, within sufficiently narrow limits to allow a planned evacuation programme, is an unrealistic goal.” 

“另一方面，向这场辩论提交论文表示了看法的所有研究者，都同意∶对一次地震做出‘确定性预测’，其有效限度窄到允许实施计划中的撤离计划，是一种不现实的目标。”

接续后篇∶

——>9. Effect of earthquake predictions to governments and the public

地震预测对政府和公众的影响

参考文献

1 Ian Main, Earthquake prediction: Concluding Remarks, 8 April, Nature debate on earthquake prediction (1999).

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