Meteorological Disaster Prediction Studies

Prof. Tao Shou-zheng: Monthly and Seasonal Effective Precipitation Forecast Using Model of Astronomical Period Hyreresis Energy (APHE)

Remarks by Advisor Chen I-wan

In the “Letter written to Academician Ding Yi-hui, Academician Li Zhe-chun recommending Prof. Tao Shou-zheng and his world leading weather forecast “Monthly and Seasonal Effective Precipitation Forecast Using Model of Astronomical Period Hyreresis Energy (APHE)” on Oct. 5 2006, Advisor Chen I-wan especially emphasized:

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-- One of the important reasons I most treasure Prof. Tao’s “Monthly and Seasonal Effective Precipitation Forecast Using Model of Astronomical Period Hyreresis Energy (APHE)” is not only due to recognizing its world leading position, but because this achievement origins from Prof. Tao “striding through deep snow in the winter, and through the muddy roads in the summer, walking daily one hundred Li (equal to 50km) deep into the local farmlands to investigate and learn about the ancient weather forecasting methods from the farmers” and integrating such ancient people’s experience with the scientific content of modern meteorology theories.

-- Prof. Tao fully admits that his research origins from the farmers, and not like certain meteorology researchers, they either disdains the science treasury passed down generations by generations of the Chinese people, or their research achievements actually origin from the research experience passed down by the people, but they purposely tried to hide and cover this, describing it as independent discovery by their own studies.

-- Another reason why I do my utmost in recommending “Monthly and Seasonal Effective Precipitation Forecast Using Model of Astronomical Period Hyreresis Energy (APHE)” achievement is because I have recognized that it can become a breakthrough point through which China’s meteorology science research can leap to the world leading position: During my investigation studies of a number of Chinese medium-term, long-term and super-long –term weather forecast practicing researchers, some of them have carried out such research for several dozen years, some even over 150 years through research work of three generations by a grandfather and a grandson, I achieved some preliminary understanding of the research achievements by Prof. Tao, and the work by another meteorology researcher in other but related fields, and the achievements by two other most outstanding astronomy meteorology non-mainstream amateur researchers.

-- Prof. Tao Shou-zheng has worked on this research achievement for over 40 years: Upon 13 years of most difficult investigation and follow-up verification he absorbed the essence of ancient weather forecast method developed in China, then with a model established on the basis of modern meteorology science, carried out 26 years of practical verification tests with great success, which during application helped the local provincial government accomplish massive economic benefits exceeding RMB one billion (approx. USD100 million); In 1999 a science appraisal was organized under the leadership of the Ministry of Education, led by Prof. Liu Shi-da, Beijing University, the former deputy board director of the China Meteorology Society, which concluded: The level of this monthly & quarterly precipitation forecasting method, most appraisal committee members consider that it already holds world leading position.

The achievement after 2000 further prove this point: At the Meteorology Dept. of the China Agriculture University, by using the Ncar 57 years data for 1948 – 2006, carrying out verification test for the summer to China, America and Europe, as well as Ncar 36 years data for 1970 – 2006 for the autumn, winter, spring for China and America, i.e. total 1600 area/times of verification test, proved that the DP (Trend) correct rate exceeds 80%!

-- Based on these solid facts accomplished by Prof. Tao Shou-zheng for over 40 years, this achievement demonstrates great practical application value to China and the world for medium-term prediction of meteorological disasters as well as to global disaster prevention and disaster reduction, and has great significance to the development of modern meteorology science.

Accordingly I strongly suggest:

(1) China’s Ministry of Science & Technology should organize the State disaster prevention and reduction departments, together with other trans-disciplinary departments carry out joint examination on the scientific and objective truth of the results of many appraisals, evaluation comments and verification test by several authoritative meteorology scientists and institutions listed in the report below, including by Academician Tao Shi-yan, Academician Chen Chun-shu, Prof. Yao Zhen-Sheng etc. on Prof. Tao Shou-zheng’s “Monthly and Seasonal Effective Precipitation Forecast Using Model of Astronomical Period Hyreresis Energy (APHE)”.

(2) If the result of such a joint examination proves the scientific and objective truth of the results of these many appraisals, evaluation comments and verification test, proves that Prof. Tao Shou-zheng’s research achievement truly is an origin self-developed science innovation achievement based heritages of Chinese farmers ancient weather forecast experience passed down by generations, and by incorporating the advance scientific content of modern meteorology science, and truly is “achieved important breakthrough, accomplished domestic leading results, and most specialist consider achieved world leading result, should be awarded, and given support, enabling it to be further tested, making greater contribution to our nations disaster prediction”, as appraised by the appraisal experts committee organized under the Ministry of Education in 1999, then, regardless what attitudes are expressed by those exceeded by this achievement, should first immediately apply the top national innovation award for Prof. Tao Shou-zheng’s above achievement.

Advisor Chen I-wan: Modern meteorology and the issue of longer-term weather forecasting.

-- Section 3 of “Healthy & Rapid Development of Chinese Science & Technology, Economy and Society Call for Innovation Achievements Bringing Challenges to Traditional Basic Theories of Science and Technology”

Advisor Chen I-wan: The limitations and nescience content of Western meteorology conflicts with the scientific and advance content contained in Chinese ancient traditional culture!

-- Section 9 of “Healthy & Rapid Development of Chinese Science & Technology, Economy and Society Call for Innovation Achievements Bringing Challenges to Traditional Basic Theories of Science and Technology”

Advisor Chen I-wan: The basic theories insisted by academic authorities in modern conventional earth science, geophysics, seismology and meteorology contain a series of essential mistakes in wrong research direction.

-- Section 7 of “Healthy & Rapid Development of Chinese Science & Technology, Economy and Society Call for Innovation Achievements Bringing Challenges to Traditional Basic Theories of Science and Technology”

Advisor Chen I-wan: The world earth science mainstream scholars might catch up with the leading position held by Chinese earth science non-mainstream researchers!

-- Section 8 of “Healthy & Rapid Development of Chinese Science & Technology, Economy and Society Call for Innovation Achievements Bringing Challenges to Traditional Basic Theories of Science and Technology”

Advisor Chen I-wan: A letter to Academician Ding Yi-hui, Academician Li Zhe-chun (Oct. 5 2006)

-- Recommending Prof. Tao Shou-zheng and his world leading weather forecast “Monthly and Seasonal Effective Precipitation Forecast Using Model of Astronomical Period Hyreresis Energy (APHE)”