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Earthquake Prediction Studies
Organized by the Jiangxi Provincial Seismology Bureau, the Weng Wen-bo Science Development Foundation, the Committee of Natural Disaster Prediction, and Califas Consultants (Beijing) Co., Ltd., May 2004. Author’s Comment: In Feb. – April, 1999 Nature organized an open debate on the issue of Earthquake Prediction on its website. Scholars from seven nations, including those supporting, suspicious and opposing “earthquake can’t be predicted”, from USA, France, Great Britain, Denmark, Japan, Italy and China, submitted several dozen papers, quoting over 200 references by themselves or by others, held a severe debate over a series of issues related to earthquake prediction. For all university students, master degree and doctor degree post-graduates studying seismology, geophysics and Earth science courses in China or abroad, and all members of the young generation of researchers who have graduated from such universities and begin to work in the above fields, the “The debate organized on earthquake prediction by Nature (Feb. – April, 1999), the main viewpoints quoted from this debate, and inspiration, suggestions and conclusion from them” edited by the author is an important reference material they must read. This material is helpful to people realize as soon as possible: “Mainstream scholars of the scientific community still cannot achieve satisfactory, self-justifying explanations on the most basic important problems mankind requires them to study. This only indicates that the basic theories of modern Earth science, geophysics, seismology and meteorology insisted to be valid by the academic authorities probably contain a series of mistakes leading scientists in the wrong research directions. Facing Nature’s exam on these most basic questions, they still have not passed even the basic school grade!” During the 30th anniversary memorial of the Tangshan earthquake, “earthquake” for a time became the hot topic. The Ms5.1 earthquake occurring on July 22 at Yanjin county, Zhaotong City, Yunnan Province, due to the news about “the city government burked the accurate prediction with no further communication”, when people ardently talked about earthquakes, this news added some anger and suspicious. Accordingly, our newspaper invited earthquake prediction experts and officials respond to the hot points concerned by the public. The members interviewed, some were senior earthquake prediction experts who experienced the situation before and after the Tangshan earthquake; some were senior officials of the State seismology bureau, responsible of the present earthquake monitoring and prediction work. (Per request by those interviewed, they appear here jointly as experts of the State seismology bureau.) ☞Liu He-shou:Evangel to Mankind: Earthquake Prediction Seeks Breakthrough I had the opportunity to read “Preliminary Achievements in Research of Earthquake Prediction” (Oct. 29, 2006) a report written by Sun Wei, an earthquake prediction specialist, and “To Assure the Tragedy of Tangshan Does not Replay – 30th Memorial Anniversary of the Tangshan Earthquake” (Draft for seeking suggestions, July 2006), also written by Sun Wei. They got me very excited, but also quite puzzled. From ancient times until today, mankind has suffered great damages by earthquakes, and the key is due to not been able to accurately predict when they will strike, allowing early evade. The creative theory and equipment developed by Sun Wei can help to rather accurately predict earthquakes, this no doubt is evangel to mankind, worthwhile to pay attention. In order to assure accuracy of natural disaster prediction during for 2008 Olympics in Beijing, Mr. Chen I-wan, grandson of Secretary to Dr. Sun Yat-sen, on Aug. 10, 2006 wrote a letter to Mr. Chen Jian-min, Director of the China Seismology Bureau, severely rebuked, “he excludes and suppresses the self-determined creative earthquake prediction achievements of earthquake prediction practicing researchers within and outside the China seismology bureau, and, at the same time claims that earthquake prediction requires long-term unremitting efforts of a few generations or even over a dozen generations”, thus “disengages his responsibility as the director and the responsibilities of the China Seismology Bureau, which is uttermost irresponsible to the life and properties of the people and State safety!” – The State Seismology Bureau has for long time suppressed correct suggestions by non-governmental earthquake prediction experts and public supervision, refused their most effective new earthquake prediction scientific and technological achievements. This enables the tragedy of Tangshan earthquake might replay again during the 5th seismic active duration announced to the public by the State Seismology Bureau! – Mr. Chen I-wan revealed the above information to the reporter in Shenzhen on Oct. 6, 2006, and provided copies of related evidence.
Note: Recently, Mr. Zhu Jian-guo, a freelance writer, on the internet posted his interview with Advisor Chen I-wan (Advisor, Committee of Natural Hazard Prediction to China Geophysics Society) 〔http://column.bokee.com/183505.html〕. The paper referred to a letter Advisor Chen I-wan on Aug. 10, 2006 wrote to Mr. Chen Jian-min, Director, China Seismology Bureau. In this letter Advisor Chen I-wan angrily rebuked Director Chen Jian-min ““disengages his responsibility as the director and the responsibilities of the China Seismology Bureau, which is uttermost irresponsible to the life and properties of the people!” In order to enable our readers learn about the concerned situation, by obtaining approval from Advisor Chen I-wan, were herewith post Advisor Chen’s
Note: After visiting the “International Seismology Instrument & Emergency Salvation Equipment and Technology Exhibition” held in Oct. in Beijing, Advisor Chen I-wan received a form “China Seismology Government Purchase Tender Evaluation Expert Form” sent by Mr. Liu Guo-hua from the “Earthquake Government Purchasing Center”. Upon filling the form, the Committee of Natural Hazard Prediction to the China Geophysics Society also wrote their remarks “Mr. Chen I-wan’s work resume is detailed and true, agree to appoint him as an Purchase Tender Evaluation Expert for government purchase by the China Seismology Bureau.” In the form, Advisor Chen I-wan also actively stated: “If the leadership of the State Seismology Bureau has interest, with support and collaboration from the group of many experts from the Committee of Natural Hazard Prediction to the China Geophysics Society, I can also in a series of field provide consultant and evaluation opinions to the leadership of the China Seismology Bureau.” Considering that the “Earthquake Government Purchasing Center” might have difficulty in receiving the above form, Advisor Chen I-wan especially wrote this letter to Mr. Song Rui-xiang, Director of the China Seismology Bureau at that time. Author’s Words: In order to clarify if the “Earthquake Prediction Method Based on Sun Light Deviation Observation” contains or not any degree of science significance, the author spent over two months working time completing this Preliminary Evaluation Report. The original English version was posted on Shan’s website:
http://earthquake.itgo.com/chen1.htm
The Chinese translation of the paper was presented at the academic meeting of the Committee of Natural Hazard Prediction held in April 2004 in Nanchang, Jiangxi Province. The author has great pleasure seeing that the original English report posted at Shan’s website, not only is helpful in enabling researchers paying attention to earthquake prediction get a better understanding of the Earth science observation research work by this Indian researcher, but also helpful to a few Indian researchers get a better understanding about the work and achievements by their own compatriot.
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